Oscar Predictions 2024
Welcome to a special edition of the Weekend Watch – the Oscars 2024 predictions. This past week (on Tuesday), Oscar nominations were released, ushering in the peak of film awards season. Oppenheimer led the nominees with thirteen nominations, becoming just the fourteenth film to reach that number or more, followed by eleven for Poor Things and ten for Killers of the Flower Moon. Barbie and Maestro were the other two films receiving more than five nominations. For the first time ever, three films directed by women have been nominated for Best Picture, seven LGBTQ+ characters are included in the acting nominees, and two LGBTQ+ actors are nominated for portraying said characters (all firsts). Lily Gladstone became the first Indigenous American actress to be nominated for an Academy Award, and nine other actors received their first nominations. Let’s get into my predictions!
Best Live Action Short:
The nominees for this category are: The After, Invincible, Knight of Fortune, Red, White, and Blue, and The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. I caught three of these films this week, after nominations came out and have watched the trailers for the other two, so here’s my thoughts.
Should Win: Knight of Fortune. Of the three that I watched, this one blew me away the most. It plays in that very real area that combines grief with absurdity and really hits the right notes throughout. Unfortunately, it’s in a category with another film about processing grief, a film about abortion rights, a film about the juvenile detention system, and a film by Wes Anderson, so I’m not overly optimistic.
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. It’s a Wes Anderson film that happens to come in under the forty-minute mark, and it’s the lightest of the five nominees, and it’s available to stream on Netflix. Across the board, this is the most accessible, but I won’t be particularly upset if it doesn't win.
Best Documentary Short:
The nominees for this category are: The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between, The Last Repair Shop, and Năi Nai and Wài Pó. Again, I was able to catch a couple of these this week after nominations dropped, and I’ve read about the rest, so here we go.
Should Win: The Barber of Little Rock. As someone originally from Little Rock, I’ll admit to a very strong bias here, but I will say that this film also speaks to relevant issues of systemic racism, wealth inequality, and the inherent problems with the modern system of capital, so it’s not just sentiment that has me put it here.
Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning. This might be the most topical film in the mix, and MTV documentaries always does a good job. I do think that it’s probably also very deserving, so I won’t be that disappointed if it wins.
Best Animated Short:
The nominees for this category are: Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderme, and War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko. Like many, I was surprised to see Disney left out of this category yet again, but it seems that the animation branch of the Academy is just generally moving in that direction. Let’s talk about it.
Should Win: Ninety-Five Senses. I’m really just saying this because I think it’d be cool for the people who made Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre win an Oscar – and also Tim Blake Nelson is great.
Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko. The Academy rarely misses on a chance to give a potentially less-than-deserving award to films about and/or inspired by musicians of the 60s, 70s, and 80s, so I expect it to go this way again.
Best International Film:
The nominees for this category are: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, and The Zone of Interest. The Japan nomination for Perfect Days saved this from being an entirely European category, but even it was directed by European director Wim Wenders, so I don’t know how much of a step this really is for the Academy. Nothing overly surprising here besides France (rightfully) being left out because they submitted The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy of a Fall for political reasons – play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Should Win: Perfect Days. It’s too simple of a film to actually win, but Wenders is great at making films with meaning about the mundane, and I’d like to see him finally get some awards recognition for it. He won’t, but still.
Will Win: The Zone of Interest. Only one of these nominees is nominated in multiple other categories, including above-the-line categories like Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. It’d be a crazy upset if this doesn’t win.
Best Documentary Feature:
The nominees for this category are: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, and 20 Days in Mariupol. I don’t have a lot to say about this category besides pointing out the snub of Jon Batiste’s American Symphony here.
Should Win: Bobi Wine: The People’s President. If they were consistent, they’d give the award again to the film about an opposition party leader in a historically authoritarian nation.
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol. They’re going to be consistent in a different direction and keep giving awards to movies about violence in Eastern Europe because they’d rather talk about that than violence anywhere else in the world.
Best Animated Feature:
The nominees for this category are: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Robot Dreams better be one of the best animated films ever made because nominating a film that isn’t even widely available over Ninja Turtles, Suzume, The First Slam Dunk, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie feels crazy to me. Everything else is an excellent choice, though.
Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Not only is this film one of the best animated films ever, but it’s also simply one of the best films ever. It accomplishes so much with animation that you just don’t see in the mainstream and does it in entertaining fashion. Is The Boy and the Heron also really good? Yes, but love for Miyazaki shouldn’t trump the all-time marvel that is Across the Spider-Verse.
Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. I won’t be surprised to see The Boy and the Heron here because the narrative seems to be sticking that it’s Miyazaki’s “last” movie (I’ll believe that when I see an obituary for the man and not a second earlier). Realistically, though, it still looks like the anime’s Globes win was a flash in the pan and the Spider-Verse trilogy is about to go two-for-two in this category.
Best Visual Effects:
The nominees in this category are: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, and Napoleon. This is one of the weirdest categories of the year, and the inexplicable Oppenheimer snub from the shortlist is only the tip of that weirdness iceberg. Here we go.
Should Win: Godzilla Minus One. In actuality, this should be Oppenheimer or Spider-Verse, but we’re stuck with these nominees, so I’m giving it to the most exciting of the nominees, and not the exceedingly overrated Mission: Impossible film or the pity nominations for the Rogue One guy and Ridley Scott.
Will Win: The Creator. A mid-budget (for the U.S.) film with these visuals probably is the most deserving in the category and probably will pull it off.
Best Sound:
The nominees in this category are: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, and The Zone of Interest. A few surprises here and there in this category, but the favorite is still here, and none of them feel overly undeserving (except maybe Dead Reckoning, which I’ll campaign against forever as one of the most disappointing films of the year).
Should Win: Maestro. The sound and cinematography in this film are really what make it worth watching above and beyond the acting performances, and I think it’d be cool to award that.
Will Win: Oppenheimer. I also think this should win, but I wanted to give Maestro its due. This film is big in every aspect of the word, and its sound only helps to contribute to that sense of scale. It’s excellent.
Best Song:
The nominees in this category are: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe” from Killers of the Flower Moon, and “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie. Should “Dance the Night” be here over either “What Was I Made For?”, “Wahzhazhe”, or “The Fire Inside”? Absolutely, but them’s the brakes.
Should Win: “I’m Just Ken”. Of the five nominees, this provides the most exciting addition to the film that it’s part of, and it has some relistenability as opposed to the Billie Eilish track, which should have been left out in favor of Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night” anyway.
Will Win: “What Was I Made For?”. Billie Eilish is coming for her second Oscar this year and has been campaigning for it since her acceptance speech at the Golden Globes. This song is mid, but it’ll win anyway. That’s all.
Best Score:
The nominees in this category are: Laura Karpman for American Fiction, John Williams for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Robbie Robertson for Killers of the Flower Moon, Ludwig Göransson for Oppenheimer, and Jerskin Fendrix for Poor Things. Seeing John Williams in here feels like seeing Diane Warren in for Original Song – they’ve gotta do it, but it leaves out much more deserving nominees every time, this time in the form of Daniel Pemberton for Across the Spider-Verse.
Should Win: Laura Karpman for American Fiction or Jerskin Fendrix for Poor Things. Both of these scores feel the most unique of the crew, but they’re not crazy big or over-the-top, so they won’t actually pull it off.
Will Win: Ludwig Göransson for Oppenheimer. It’s an excellent score too that is by no means undeserving, and it will probably become the most iconic of this year’s scores anyway, so I’m not that disappointed that it’s headed in this direction.
Best Production Design:
The nominees in this category are: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. Nothing feels overly surprising here, but I will say that it feels weird to keep nominating Napoleon for being such an underachieving film in its other aspects when The Color Purple is right there on the outside looking in in most of these categories.
Should Win: Barbie. The creation of Barbieland, the construction of the Barbie Dream House, the layout of the Mattel office. Everything in the film feels intentionally crafted to be itself and also an homage to other great films of bygone eras. It’s a great technical achievement.
Will Win: Barbie. The only other legitimate contender here is Poor Things, but I don’t see it passing the iconic design of Barbie.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
The nominees in this category are: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and Society of the Snow. Again, we see this category skewed heavily in favor of the makeup with hairstyling coming as a distant afterthought.
Should Win: Poor Things. They do some really fun and creative things here with both the makeup and the hair for all of the characters, so it’d be fun to see that rewarded.
Will Win: Maestro. The age makeup is really pretty excellent here, so I get why it’s going to win, but I also know that everyone’s going to make a big deal about the whole nose fiasco, so… It’s whatever.
Best Film Editing:
The nominees in this category are: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. I don’t feel overly qualified to make judgements about film editing, but this feels like a pretty stacked category this year.
Should Win: The Holdovers. They made this film look like a 1970s school drama, and that’s all I really have to say in favor of it, but I feel like that’s all I have to say. It’s great.
Will Win: Oppenheimer. They do some fun things with the different eras here, and it feels like a film destined to win most of its below-the-line nominations, so I’m fine with it.
Best Costume Design:
The nominees in this category are: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. Again, it’s weird to see Napoleon over The Color Purple or even Wonka, but otherwise, it’s a pretty vanilla category.
Should Win: Barbie. They recreated so many iconic Barbie sets that I can’t see how you could ignore the excellence in costume design here.
Will Win: Barbie. Last year, the film that recreated seemingly hundreds of iconic looks missed out on the win, but I don’t expect that to be the case this time around.
Best Cinematography:
The nominees for this category are: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. Only one of these films doesn’t have a black and white sequence, so I feel like that’s going to become a pretty clear indicator for this category going forward.
Should Win: Poor Things. Robbie Ryan is a fantastic cinematographer, and his collaborations with Yorgos Lanthimos have been nothing short of gorgeous. There are shots in this film that you just don’t see anywhere else, so he’s more than deserving of the win.
Will Win: Oppenheimer. This film also has excellent visuals, so it won’t at all be a snub or anything for it to win. It looks great and utilizes camerawork well, and I’ll be glad to see it win.
Best Original Screenplay:
The nominees in this category are: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, and Past Lives. This is a stacked category with four incredibly deserving nominees and a biopic. I won’t be that upset about anything, but here are my official opinions.
Should Win: Past Lives. One of the singular most moving romantic dramas that has ever been made. It’s brilliant, and the writing hooks you from the jump. Celine Song deserves everything.
Will Win: The Holdovers. In order to keep its long-shot hopes alive for a Best Picture upset, it needs to beat out Anatomy of a Fall here, and I think it will, especially with Payne snubbed for the directing Oscar.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The nominees in this category are: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. We can keep going around and around about Barbie being an original screenplay (it is even if its production design is otherwise inspired), or we could just laugh at the message being sent already that Killers is this year’s Irishman by keeping it out of this category entirely.
Should Win: Oppenheimer. He wrote this screenplay in first person. That’s egregious, but it’s also really impressive, so give it to Nolan.
Will Win: American Fiction. This is the only other film that should have a shot in this category, and I think it pulls out the win over Barbie and Oppenheimer. I also won’t be surprised if it misses, though. It’s a really tough call.
Best Supporting Actor:
The nominees in this category are: Sterling K. Brown for American Fiction, Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon, Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer, Ryan Gosling for Barbie, and Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things. This is a stacked category with snubs also abounding – justice for Charles Melton, Dominic Sessa, and Willem Dafoe – but you just can’t fit everyone in with only five nominees, so, while I might’ve preferred Melton over Ruffalo, I don’t think anyone’s undeserving in this crew.
Should Win: Sterling K. Brown for American Fiction. With all the love that Jeffrey Wright has been getting for this film, I was so surprised to see Brown as the more dominant performance in the film, and I loved every second of it. He won me over in this one, and I hope he pulls the upset.
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer. If it’s anyone else, I’d be greatly shocked, and I won’t be at all disappointed to see Downey’s Strauss go down as one of the classic political villains in cinematic history.
Best Supporting Actress:
The nominees in this category are: Emily Blunt for Oppenheimer, Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple, America Ferrara for Barbie, Jodie Foster for Nyad, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers. With the surprise of America Ferrara getting into that toss-up of a fifth spot, nothing is that crazy in this category.
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers. She gives the best performance out of these five, and if she doesn’t win, we riot.
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers. Ditto to what I said above.
Best Actor:
The nominees in this category are: Bradley Cooper for Maestro, Colman Domingo for Rustin, Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers, Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer, and Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction. As much as people are decrying Bradley Cooper for “overacting” in Maestro, their favorite “snubbed” actor was doing much worse in Killers of the Flower Moon. I’m totally fine that Leo telling us ten different times about how much he loves money missed out on the nom here in favor of Domingo’s film-carrying performance in Rustin.
Should Win: Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers. Oh man, what a fun performance to pull off what will also end up being a “legacy” Oscar if it happens. He’s great in this film and more than deserving of a win.
Will Win: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer. I’m still not ready to fully commit to Giamatti winning over Cillian, so that’s why this is here. I also won’t be that upset with anyone winning in this category, so that definitely helps. I think Cillian does give one of the best performances of his career and definitely deserves the consideration he’s gotten so far.
Best Actress:
The nominees in this category are: Annette Bening for Nyad, Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon, Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan for Maestro, and Emma Stone for Poor Things. Talk about a stacked category with four amazing performances and a biopic! Was Margot Robbie probably better than Annette Bening? Sure, but that’s said and done and there’s nothing that whining about it online will do to change that.
Should Win: Emma Stone for Poor Things. Great as all the women in this category are in their respective films, Stone gives the singular most original performance possibly of anyone ever in the history of cinema. Every scene of the film, I was amazed at the new physical, expressive, and verbal tricks that she was able to put on display, and when she loses, I’m going to be quite disappointed.
Will Win: Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon. If this win was coming for Supporting Actress, I’d say that it would be the most deserving win in years in that category. As it stands, this is going to feel a bit questionable because of how limited her screentime is. For everyone saying, “Oh, but you can feel her absence and presence even when she’s not there,” I think actually what you’re getting at is the way that Scorsese made you feel the presence and absence of the Osage as a whole, and it feels weird giving a single performance credit for an entire people group, especially a minority – it feels too close to monolithing for my taste. She is great, but I’m just not fully comfortable with calling it the best leading performance of the year when Emma Stone is right there. Also, all that high school stuff and comparing Poor Things to Frankenhooker is just campaigning, so y’all are suckers idk.
Best Director:
The nominees in this category are: Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall, Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon, Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer, Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things, and Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. I get the frustration over leaving Greta Gerwig and/or Celine Song out here. Unfortunately, the directing branch of the Academy is dominated by old white men who think that comedies have to be weird, dark, tragic, or made by Adam McKay to be considered well-directed, so here we are. It’s not even that any of these are necessarily undeserving directors either, though I would argue that throwing a red screen in the middle of a film with weird noises played over it doesn’t suddenly make it great, but I’m just a blogger, so what do I know?
Should Win: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. He has made one of the best films of his career, and it’s finally getting recognized for it. Good for him!
Will Win: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. He’s really one of the best directors in the modern age at getting his vision fully on the screen in a way that massive moviegoing audiences also love (Tenet notwithstanding), and he’ll finally get that win here.
Best Picture:
The nominees for the top prize at the Oscars are: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, and The Zone of Interest. Any year where most people can say that they’ve seen multiple nominees on the list and liked them is a good year for Best Picture, and this is one of the best in a long time. No real misses even if I was less than whelmed by Zone and Poor Things, they’re still well-made films. Let’s take a look.
Should Win: Past Lives. It’s my favorite film of the year, but it has no real chance of winning after missing on basically every big category besides Original Screenplay. It’d be great to see it win, but that’s asking way too much.
Will Win: Oppenheimer. The film has dominated the discourse since its release, and none of the other films seem to have much of a shot at toppling this film from the top. It’s more than deserving of this top spot, though.
