Weekend Watch - December 2023 Recap

                Welcome back to the Weekend Watch where each week we take a look at a new piece of film or television media and give it a rating, review, or recommendation. This week, we are putting the final bow on 2023 in film by recapping the best releases of the month of December. These films are the ones with the highest likelihood of making this blog’s list of Greatest Films of All Time, categorized into Long Shots, Possible Things, and Sure Things. December really wrapped 2023 up with a bang, giving us some truly great films across many categories, living up to the hype for its blockbusters, indie films, and awards-bait alike. What a way to wrap up arguably the best year in film this decade! Let’s get into it.

Long Shots:

Maestro: Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein biopic hit wide release on Netflix this month, and now that everyone’s seen it, the director’s style hasn’t quite hit everyone’s sensibilities the same way. It continues to receive recognition in the form of award nominations, but wins and high ratings are few and far between for the stuffed, frenetic, auteur-esque film.

Eileen: The Anne Hathaway, Thomasin McKenzie vehicle about the relationship between co-workers at a prison facility from NEON hasn’t quite had the universal acclaim that it would have needed to launch itself into the awards races. Critics seem fairly positive on the film, particularly the performances of the two actresses, but fans are deeply divided with most that I’ve seen complaining about the inconsistent pacing and middling writing of the film’s back half.

Wonka: All Paul King does is make wholesome hits, and this is yet another. Its box office success has already surpassed both Paddington films even if its critical success hasn’t (most likely a result of comparison to the existing IP). Its technical prowess and continued run in theaters might just be enough to elevate it to greatness, but don’t necessarily hold your breath. It’s still a really good film, though.

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget: This is one of those films that begs the question of “Why?”, and I don’t necessarily have an answer. Netflix has this one on its slate of possible Best Animated Picture nominees that inevitably lose to either Spider-Verse or The Boy and the Heron, and its middling reviews with both critics and fans don’t have me optimistic about its chances. It’s still here because of that outside shot, though.

Ferrari: Michael Mann had a run of three films in the 1990s that made it as both “dad hits” and “critical successes”, and everyone’s been waiting for his next hit since then. By the look of things, Ferrari is no Heat or even Last of the Mohicans, but its high-octane race sequences and the performance of Penelope Cruz might be enough to elevate him back to greatness here.

Possible Things:

May December: Todd Haynes is back with another unsung hit in the Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore, and Charles Melton film loosely based on the predatory relationship between Mary Kay Schmitz Letourneau and Vili Fualaau. Its topical nature, excellent performances, and unique Todd Haynes style all make it prime for all-time greatness, but not everyone agrees fully with me on that, so it sits needing some awards love to get there.

American Fiction: The winner of TIFF’s Audience Award has been rolling out its release for a few weeks now, and the more people see it, the more its potential as a Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Screenplay spoiler becomes more cemented. Cord Jefferson has turned satire into something that is easily consumable with the help of Jeffrey Wright and the rest of his stellar cast. Assuming it keeps getting the love it has so far, this is one of the more solid Possible Things from December.

The Iron Claw: A24 goofed dropping this one as late in the year as they did. If this film came out three months earlier, it’s sitting as a sure thing, in contention in multiple categories above and below the line. As it stands, it’s still one of the highest rated films of the year by fans and has solid reviews from critics as well. Some surprise love from BAFTAs or Oscars would certainly cement this one in place, but I currently expect it to be just below the cusp when new films get entered in.

The Color Purple: Blitz Bazawule’s remake of the classic musical has hit the notes that it needs to be in contention for a spot among the greats. Unfortunately, some of the creative choices seem to have held the film back from being universally acclaimed, and it looks like it might even be slipping out of Best Picture contention. Even so, the acting and technical love that the film is receiving might still be enough to put it over.

Sure Things:

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé: 2023 was the year of the concert film, and Beyoncé brought it all home with her documentary about the Renaissance tour. Fans, critics, and box offices have loved the superstar’s film, and it brings the year home in style.

Godzilla Minus One: Japan’s latest Godzilla film continues to show how much better the country’s filmmakers are at making kaiju films with some actual substance. Its box office success and success with critics are just the icing on the cake for this film, which might now have a shot at an Oscar nomination for its visual effects as well.

The Boy and the Heron: Miyazaki’s “final” (it sounds like he’s making another one, but you won’t hear that in the news again until after awards season) film opened in the U.S. in December and has scratched the itch for so many of his fans. Its win at the Golden Globes might be a portent of even more love to come, and it really is nice to have the filmmaker back in the saddle.

Poor Things: While its controversial subject matter has brought out some very strong opinions from quite a few on Filmstagram and Film Twitter, overall, the film has been a hit with audiences and critics. From Emma Stone’s leading performance to the creative costume and production design to the direction of Yorgos Lanthimos, this film remains the most unique offering from the year’s Best Picture contenders.

All of Us Strangers: While it’s not out in every theater, the British drama about memory, love, and grief continues to hit highs with everyone who sees it. Andrew Scott gives what is reportedly one of the best performances of the year, and the film looks to contend for Best Picture at the BAFTAs and maybe even pull some upsets at the Oscars if it’s lucky.

Weekend Watch - November 2023 Recap

                Welcome back to the Weekend Watch where each week we take a look at a new piece of film or television media and give it a rating, review, and recommendation. This week, we have come to the end of another month of films and will be recapping the most noteworthy releases of the month. They’ll be categorized by their likelihood of making it onto this blog’s list of the Greatest Films of All Time and cementing themselves in cinematic history: Long Shots are those with the toughest road ahead of them, noteworthy for their support from either critics or audiences or for their awards potential but struggling in at least one of those other spots; Possible Things are films that have done a bit better for themselves, earning above average marks from critics and audiences but not quite to a level of “all-time” greatness, and Sure Things are films that need no extra help to cement themselves in history (though they most likely will receive some awards love too). November brought a host of highly anticipated films to theaters and streaming services, but outside of one legitimate success and a few surprise overachievers, the month underperformed overall, leaving us with a decent showing of films but very little in terms of legitimate staying power. Let’s get into it.

Long Shots:

Nyad: This Netflix biopic of distance swimmer Diana Nyad probably stands the best chance of making it out of this category thanks to the strong performances of its two leading ladies – Annette Bening in the titular role and Jodie Foster as her coach Bonnie Stoll – but its formulaic delivery of its real-life story has landed it solidly in the just okay range of both audience and critic scores, so we’ll see.

Sly: Documentaries about Hollywood actors have abounded this year, particularly ones released by Netflix, and I think we’re starting to see an oversaturation take place. This one about the life and career of Sylvester Stallone sounds like one sure to please his fans but that might not have a wide enough fan base to experience the larger success it’ll need to overcome very average critical reception.

The Killer: David Fincher’s latest thriller was one of the year’s most anticipated, but it has landed with a plop rather than a splash in its brief theatrical run and then on its Netflix release. The slow-burn character study of a hired killer looking to maybe get out of the game and get back at those who wronged him has left everyone praising Fincher’s direction but a bit frustrated with the overall film for its slowness and lack of compelling character development.

Thanksgiving: On the other hand, Eli Roth’s holiday slasher is a film that has outdone its expectations, receiving mildly above average audience reviews for the return of classic slasher tropes and fun tongue-in-cheek humor. Will it actually have any staying power beyond the usual cult followings of slasher films? Probably not, but never say never.

Saltburn: Emerald Fennell’s sophomore feature has received the Babylon treatment from critics, deeming it too shocking to be “great”. Whatever. Its Metacritic score of 60 and Tomatometer of 71% mean that its chances of rising much higher on this blog’s list are slim-to-none, but don’t let that stop you from seeing this wild romp through the aristocracy of Britain.

Rustin: Another based-on-a-true-story performance-driven biopic from Netflix that has even slimmer chances of lingering on. Odd tonal choices and an underwhelming third act have left this well-acted film fairly far down on many people’s lists of the year’s best films, and I don’t see Colman Domingo elevating the whole thing by himself – even as phenomenal as his performance is.

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes: The adaptation of Suzanne Collins’s prequel novel has managed to hit the perfect note with audiences, earning it a top-25 box office this year and surprisingly solid reviews from fans. Even with a lack of matching support from critics, this film has something going for it that makes it worth checking out.

Napoleon: Oh look, another biopic. It’s almost like formulaic biographical films just don’t hit like they did in the 1990s and 2000s or something. Ridley Scott, Joaquin Phoenix, and Vanessa Kirby being attached to this film keep it at very long odds of rising above, but with three other films just from this year that are based on true stories from the past with great production design, it’s hard to see this historical epic breaking through.

Possible Things:

Fremont: Probably one of the most indie films of the year, this black and white film about an Afghan former translator now working at a fortune cookie factory in the U.S. landed on streaming this month after some very limited theatrical runs. The small amount of audience and critic reviews have been positive, but I don’t know that it’s enough to bring it to the attention of the right people to elevate above the hump that so many decent indie films face when trying to make it as all-timers.

Priscilla: Sofia Coppola’s unique style helps the Priscilla Presley biopic rise above the rank and file, and Cailee Spaeny’s leading performance definitely doesn’t hurt either. Down the road, I won’t be at all surprised if this film’s audience reviews rise much higher than they currently are, but the current Elvis Presley love has hurt its ratings, as it doesn’t paint the rockstar in nearly as positive a light as his biopic last year did. Still, there’s an outside shot it makes it already this year.

Dream Scenario: The comedy horror about a man who finds himself becoming a dream celebrity when everyone seems to be dreaming about him at night might be too wacky to earn the awards love that it’ll need to get from the quality film to all time greatness status. Nicolas Cage as the leading man certainly helps its chances, as does the distribution by A24, so don’t count it all the way out.

Radical: The Sundance hit, starring Eugenio Derbez, about a Mexican schoolteacher looking to improve his students’ experience by radical means has finally hit theaters (at least in my area), and the reviews are staying strongly positive. Unfortunately, with Mexico backing Tótem as its entry for International Feature at awards shows this year, I don’t see it getting enough attention to raise it out of its general anonymity at the moment.

American Symphony: The Netflix documentary about musician Jon Batiste has already landed in many conversations as a frontrunner for the year’s biggest documentary awards, and with Batiste as the subject and Matthew Heineman (Cartel Land) as the director, I can see why. Since its release on Netflix, the audience and critic reviews have been just above average, so it’ll need that awards love to make it a must-see for most moviegoers.

Sure Things:

The Holdovers: The month’s only sure thing is also its best performer, hitting all the notes it was expected to, earning a place on many viewers’ lists of must-watch holiday films going forward. Alexander Payne’s film about a schoolteacher and his troubled student who stay for the Christmas holiday at their boarding school with the school’s head cook in 1970. The combination of strong performances, original story, and throwback visuals make this a must-see and a potential award favorite this year.

Weekend Watch - August/September 2023 Recap

                Welcome back to the Weekend Watch where each week we take a look at a new piece of film or television media and give it a rating and review. This week, we are looking back at the months of August and September and highlighting the films most likely to have a shot at joining this blog’s list. As always, we’ll break them into three categories – Long Shots, Possible Things, and Sure Things – but (spoiler alert) it’s only Long Shots and Possible Things in this set of months. August wrapped up the summer blockbuster season in predictably lackluster fashion, and September ushered us into the season of indie awards hopefuls with little promise of actually delivering success in either sector (unlike the offerings coming in October, November, and maybe even December). Let’s get into it.

Long Shots:

Shortcomings: Randall Park’s feature film solo directorial debut about a trio of San Francisco young adults trying to find love opened to solid reviews for a niche romantic dramedy. Unfortunately for it, the film has mostly flown under the radar in gaining any kind of traction for the awards buzz this film would need to overcome the fan reviews, which are only just above average.

Jules: A sci-fi dramedy about aging suburbanites who suddenly find a space alien living in their midst has a quirky enough ring to it to pique some people’s curiosity, especially when considering its cast led by Ben Kingsley and Harriet Sansom Harris. Its unique story keeps it afloat even as the reviews seem to be getting worse by the day, lengthening this film’s odds of success.

Red, White & Royal Blue: Amazon’s gay romantic comedy about a British prince and the son of the American president had fans and critics alike celebrating its fun and originality. It’s unlikely to go far beyond that consideration as far as all-time lists go, but it should stick around among the best rom-coms of the decade so far.

Blue Beetle: The first new hero from DC in some time opened to a lackluster box office performance and reviews that are just high enough above average to place it here. It’s fun, fresh, but maybe a bit too much of a rehash of other superhero origins to get enough traction to rise above its predecessors in the DCEU. Even its visual effects might not be enough to get that requisite nomination for superhero films.

Mutt: This indie film about a trans man who must deal with the emotions of being reintroduced to those who abandoned him when he first transitioned has the makings of something that could make it bigger than this film currently has. Above average reviews and a social setting in Hollywood that currently favors trans narratives featuring trans performers makes this a film to keep the corner of your eye on.

Gran Turismo: This is one of those films that has split fans and critics, seeing massive success with general audiences but below average reviews from critics. I think it comes down to the aggressive amount of advertising for its titular game and game system that critics seem to be punishing director Neill Blomkamp for more than anything else.

You Are So Not Invited to My Bat Mitzvah: Another film that has divided critics and fans but this time from Netflix and in the reverse. This film about teen girls and their friendships and dramas has critics celebrating it to a tune of 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and a Metacritic score of 71, but audiences can’t seem to get over Adam Sandler’s involvement (or maybe they just don’t like positive depictions of female friendship and coming-of-age, who knows).

The Equalizer 3: Whenever Antoine Fuqua teams up with Denzel Washington, it’s worth mentioning, and the third film in their Equalizer trilogy has again hit the right notes with action fans while failing to wow critics, just like its first two installments. With other, more acclaimed, action films on this year’s docket, don’t expect to hear much more buzz from this sequel.

Scout’s Honor: The Secret Files of the Boy Scouts of America: Netflix’s documentary about the sexual abuse cover-ups and scandals in the Boy Scouts has generated some buzz in the world of nonfiction film, but Netflix’s formulaic style of documentary leaves it as a long shot for any wider recognition. Its topical examination will probably end up as a drama film in the coming years anyway.

Aristotle and Dante Discover the Secrets of the Universe: Aitch Alberto’s adaptation of Benjamin Alire Sáenz’s novel of the same name hit just in time for Latin American Heritage Month in the U.S., and it’s seen some level of critical and audience success. Its nature as an indie darling has it looking more like a cult classic than an all-time great, but time will tell.

Sitting in Bars with Cake: The romantic dramedy film based on Audrey Schulman’s novel, inspired by true events, from Amazon seems to have found the right audience on that platform. Critics and fans are decently high on the Yara Shahidi-starring film, but not quite high enough to generate the buzz it will need to go down as one of the all-time greats.

El Conde: Pablo Larraín’s farcical biopic that reimagines Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet as a 250-year-old vampire has the makings of something great like The Death of Stalin, but it hasn’t quite landed as well with audiences or critics. Most reviews have been generally positive but hesitant to award it full marks due to its third act that doesn’t quite land as well as you might hope.

Amerikatsi: Armenia’s entry for Best International Feature this year has divided audiences and critics, mainly because critics don’t like that it’s trying too hard to be a feel-good film and drawing away from some of the harder hitting points of its historical narrative. Nonetheless, audiences have loved the film so far, and maybe its narrative about an Armenian refugee learning about his homeland from prison will gain more traction as it gains wider release.

A Million Miles Away: Amazon has really been nailing it with these films that are just good enough to be considered above average but probably not good enough to do much else. This one tells the dramatized true story of Jose Hernandez, a farm worker who worked his way to becoming an engineer and eventually an astronaut, in what seems to be an above-average crowd-pleaser headlined by Michael Peña in the leading role.

The Saint of Second Chances: Netflix’s documentary about the relationship between former baseball owner Bill Veeck and his son Mike has hit the right feel-good notes that you want in a sports documentary. With only above-average critic ratings, though, it’s hard to see this breaking into any awards conversation, which it will need to achieve the status of greatness.

The Creator: Gareth Edwards’s sci-fi film about AI and humanity hit screens this past month to wide acclaim from fans but a more critical response from critics, who have pointed out that its “original” story draws heavily on tropes from most other “great” sci-fi films. With excellent visuals, this could still snag some under-the-line awards buzz, but I’m still not sold enough because of its very average critical response.

Dumb Money: The comedy/drama adaptation of the GameStop Wall Street situation came to us fairly quickly in terms of turnaround, and with a stacked cast. Its comedic take on the situation smacks of trying to emulate the success of The Big Short, but the only average critical success doesn’t offer much hope that it’ll be able to attain that level of all-time greatness.

Saw X: The tenth film in a horror franchise isn’t necessarily the place you’d expect to see all-time greatness, but this film has actually managed to make it as the first in the series to be Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, so it’s worth noting. It might not go down in all-time history, but it’s still fun to see horror franchises innovating and improving with new installments.

Possible Things:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem: The unique animation, fun narrative, and authentic humor have made this film a dark horse for Best Animated Feature. A smaller box office haul and the probably insurmountable greatness of Across the Spider-Verse probably leave this as a nominee at best, but don’t be surprised if this film sneaks in there.

Bottoms: Emma Seligman and Rachel Sennott’s film about lesbians starting a fight club at their school to meet girls just might be the single best film from these two months. It’s funny, fun, and more original than its premise sounds, so a shot at an Original Screenplay nom isn’t completely out of the question to launch them into a position of all-time greatness.

Cassandro: The film about the titular gay amateur wrestler turned international phenomenon that stars Gael García Bernal just might have what it takes to spoil some actor’s hopes for a best lead nomination. This is one of those Amazon films that does more than enough to be considered good and might have what it takes in terms of representation and originality to make it great.

Flora and Son: Irish filmmaker John Carney tends to hit the right notes with critics and audiences with his feel-good dramedies about music, and his latest partnership with Apple seems to be in that same vein. I don’t know that it’s quite at the levels of Sing Street and Once, but don’t fully discount it just yet. A story about a single mom healing her relationship with her son through music sounds right in the sweet spot for Carney.

Weekend Watch - May 2023 Recap

                Welcome back to the Weekend Watch where each week we take a look at a new piece of film or television media and give it a rating, review, and recommendation. This week, we’ve come to the end of another month and will be recapping the best films from the month of May – the ones that have some shot of making this blog’s list of Greatest Films of All Time, categorized by likelihood (Long Shots, Possible Things, and Sure Things). Every May since 2018 has felt like a regression for the month, with weaker and weaker blockbusters and not much else. Seriously, this May had a whole week where the “biggest” film dropping was Book Club: The Next Chapter, and we all remember how that was. Yes, May 2023 had one legitimately great blockbuster hit and some indie and documentary sleeper hits, but overall, the month feels like a letdown overall, critically speaking. Let’s get into it.

Long Shots:

Victim/Suspect: Netflix’s documentary about sexual assault victims who are accused of filing false reports and prosecuted for it has hit at the right time in terms of poignancy and relevance. Unfortunately, the documentary seems to be a bit underwhelming in its technique, leaving something to be desired in tackling such an important subject. Its relevance keeps it noteworthy, but I think we can ask for better.

Showing Up: With an ever-widening release window from distributor A24, this Michelle Williams and Hong Chau-led film about a sculptor setting up a new exhibition from director Kelly Reichardt made some waves this past month. The 2022 Cannes hit has garnered praise for Williams’s performance and its simple pacing, but it’s been so under-the radar that its 47% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes is going to be difficult to overcome.

Monica: Another 2022 festival darling that finally got its wide release this month, Monica tackles the delicate issues of aging and dying parents. Trace Lysette, Patricia Clarkson, and Emily Browning all bring the right type of star-power to the film, and in a year with a limited number of female-led films compared to years past, they have the potential to break in to some awards races. For now, this film remains on the outside looking in with just vaguely positive reviews.

Wild Life: National Geographic documentaries tend to be hit or miss when it comes to widespread acclaim, but their recent partnership with Disney has merited a little bit more recognition for the company. This particular doc, about conservationists Kris and Doug Tompkins, has struck a chord with some reviewers, though not on the level of last year’s hit Fire of Love. Keep an eye on it, but don’t put it on any must-watch lists just yet.

The Starling Girl: The Sundance and SXSW hit about religious trauma and coming of age got its wide release this month, to mostly positive critical reception and mixed reviews from audiences (probably due to its religious subject matter and the endless backlash from a certain portion of the American public whenever anything releases that vaguely goes against their beliefs). Still, with such a niche topic, it’s hard to see it breaking through beyond this underground success.

Sanctuary: The Margaret Qualley dominatrix movie that has everyone (filmstagram and film Twitter) talking seems to be more of a cult classic than a true all-time great. Still, with the right press tour and a continuing control of the conversation (unlikely, given all the more memeworthy stuff coming in the next couple of months) could result in a climb to the upper echelon of films for this one.

The Little Mermaid: With the money that it’s made and the not overwhelmingly negative reviews, it’s safe to say that this live action remake from Disney will go down as one of their more successful endeavors in that field. I’d be surprised to see much else from it when awards roll around, and without that it has no real shot of achieving greatness, but you never know for sure (Cruella really did do some crazy things a few years back).

Possible Things:

BlackBerry: I don’t know why we’re getting so many movies about the invention of things this year (Flamin’ Hot comes out in June), but we are, and they seem to be doing well with audiences and critics. The Jay Baruchel and Glenn Howerton-starring film explores the creation of “the world’s first smartphone” and its inevitable demise and seems to have hit the right blend of history, drama, and comedy for some more love down the road.

Reality: Sydney Sweeney might really be her. The film about the interrogation of whistleblower Reality Winner released last Monday on Max to serious critical acclaim. Sweeney’s performance seems to be the most noteworthy piece of the film, so she’s really the one to look out for here.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: The emotional conclusion to the Guardians trilogy has been the most successful MCU film in a while, and its place as one of the highest-grossing and most beloved by audiences put it in a good place to get the hair/makeup, costume design, and visual effects nominations it needs to get the points it needs for Greatness.

You Hurt My Feelings: Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s latest team-up with director Nicole Holofcener has been hitting the right notes with critics and fans. The dramedy about an author who hears her husband giving a less-than-encouraging review of her latest book hits the right notes, and Louis-Dreyfus is again in her element working with Holofcener.

Sure Things:

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie: The Apple TV+ documentary about the life and career of Michael J. Fox is the can’t-miss film from the month of May, achieving critical and popular acclaim from just about everyone who has watched it so far. Fox’s optimism in the face of everything and the encouragement his story brings to the world and those around him makes it a truly classic documentary.

Weekend Watch - March 2023 Recap

                Welcome back to the Weekend Watch where each week we take a look at a new piece of film or television media and give it a rating, review, and recommendation. This week, we have come to the end of another month of film and will be recapping the best films of March 2023, categorizing them by their chances at making the blog’s list of Greatest Films of All Time. March is a fun month, heralding the return of spring blockbusters and indie hits who just might become awards darlings if they play their cards right (see last year’s Everything Everywhere All at Once for reference), and this March stayed true to character, delivering some excellent indie flicks and some originality in its blockbusters that has given us the first “sure thing” of the year. Let’s get into it.

Long Shots:

Scream VI: The franchise’s best reviewed film of the millennium (since Scream 2) still probably doesn’t have the chops to get the slasher parody films onto the list of Greatest Films of All Time, even if they deserve more recognition than they currently have. It’s a horror sequel, which definitely goes against it in terms of reviews and awards potential, but it’s undeniably a solid entry and one to keep an eye on as the year progresses.

Chang Can Dunk: Look, I didn’t expect anything from this Disney+ film about an Asian high schooler who decides to learn to dunk to defeat his bullies, but its reviews are so much more positive than I think anyone expected (a 77 Metacritic and 95% Tomatometer), making it a surprise under-the-radar hit. Don’t expect to hear much more from this one, but still, its success bears mentioning.

A Good Person: Florence Pugh stays picking projects that don’t quite live up to their on-screen potential. Zach Braff’s latest directorial endeavor is no different, keeping audiences decently happy without really hitting any of the right notes for critics. If anything, I’d expect this film to be mentioned as a contribution to some awards campaign for a different film for Florence Pugh this year.

Kill Boksoon: The premise of Netflix’s Korean action-thriller alone is enough to get it mentioned – a single mother who also happens to be a hired killer struggles to find a work-life balance. I love the concept, but it seems that the film executes it in fairly unremarkable fashion. Its reviews make it sound like an enjoyable watch that’s not overly ambitious or groundbreaking. Still, an opening at Berlinale might have given this film the right clout it needs to mount a larger campaign later this year.

Possible Things:

Creed III: At this point, it feels almost like the film’s shot at any greater love beyond its initial push is now dead in the water after Jonathan Majors’s arrest. If Majors ends up not being charged and things work out, we might hear more about this film again toward the year’s end. For me, this was the best film of the month, but it’s not quite sitting at the level of reviews to get it onto the list on its own.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: Arguably the biggest surprise hit of the year so far, the D&D movie has been pleasing audiences of avid gameplayers and simple fans of action movies pretty much across the board. With its all-star cast, this does make sense, but it could easily have been just a Fast and Furious film in a fantasy setting. Instead, it currently sits with a Metacritic score of 71 and 91% Tomatometer. If this film can pull some love from the technical side of awards later on this year, it might make its way onto the list.

A Thousand and One: It’s so hard to tell which indie releases are going to make the right moves to get themselves more universally recognized later on in the year, but right now, the reviews of Teyana Taylor’s performance and the whole film about a mother trying to keep her son out of the foster system seem to indicate that this film is one to keep an eye on.

Rye Lane: It’s rare to have a streaming romantic comedy get the recognition that this Sundance darling currently has, and that’s so refreshing. Genre films don’t usually get a lot of love from the awards entities, but I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see some writing nominations for this one and maybe even some outside love, particularly from the BAFTAs, for the actors in this film.

Sure Thing:

John Wick: Chapter 4: For the fourth film in a franchise to be its most universally acclaimed and highest grossing is fairly unthinkable in this day and age, but that’s currently where we are sitting with the final(?) John Wick film. Its technical excellence and sheer entertainment value make it likely to gain even more acclaim as the year progresses, but even if things sit as they currently are, the action sequel will earn itself a spot on the blog’s list when the next round of revisions come out next year.

Weekend Watch - Oscar Predictions 2023

                Welcome to a special edition of the Weekend Watch – the Oscars 2023 predictions. This past week (on Tuesday), Oscar nominations were released, ushering in the peak of film awards season. Everything Everywhere All at Once led the nominees with eleven nominations, followed by nine apiece for The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front. Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick were other films receiving more than five nominations. All five Best Actor nominees are first-time nominees for the first time since 1935; Angela Bassett became the first actor from a Marvel film to be nominated for an acting Oscar, and for the first time ever, there are Asian actors nominated in multiple categories in the same year. With all these accomplishments, these Oscars look to be a potentially bigger deal than they have been since 2019. Let’s get into my predictions!

Best Live Action Short:

                The nominees for this category are: Le Pupille, An Irish Goodbye, The Red Suitcase, Night Ride, and Ivalu. I know basically nothing about any of these short films, but based on what I’ve looked at online, here are my predictions for what should win and what will win.

Should Win: An Irish Goodbye. For me, this short sounds the most compelling of the five – a film about two brothers dealing with the loss of their mother in Ireland. Irish films have done wildly well at this year’s Oscars, and this looks to be the second-best betting favorite to win the Oscar.

Will Win: Le Pupille. This Italian short about Catholic schoolgirls during a time of war has the backing of Disney and is the most easily accessible of the category’s nominees. That alone will probably be enough to win it the Oscar.

Best Documentary Short:

                The nominees for this category are: The Elephant Whisperers, How Do You Measure a Year?, The Martha Mitchell Effect, Stranger at the Gate, and Haulout. Again, this is a category that I am less familiar with, so I’m going to rely on odds and plot synopses to talk about these films.

Should Win: The Martha Mitchell Effect. I’m a sucker for a good political history documentary, particularly one that gets at the Nixon administration, so even though all of these actually sound incredibly compelling, this is the one I’m going with.

Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers. I also happen to love animal documentaries, as I have learned in the past couple of years, so this betting favorite won’t disappoint me in the slightest if it wins.

Best Animated Short:

                The nominees for this category are: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse, My Year of Dicks, An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It, The Flying Sailor, and Ice Merchants. This is a category that I know a little bit more about but am by no means an expert in, so I’ll offer my thoughts.

Should Win: An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It. This is just a wild premise for a film, and it’s stop-motion, so I’d love to see this one win it.

Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse. Apple’s short film being so readily available helps its campaign. Combine that with its hand-drawn animation, and you’ve got a potential winner on your hands.

Best International Film:

                The nominees for this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, and The Quiet Girl. Now, we’re getting into the stuff that I’m more familiar with. Films from Germany, Argentina, Belgium, Poland, and Ireland received the nominations this year – each deserving, if somewhat controversial. The snubbing of Decision to Leave, and RRR’s lack of eligibility leave this category somewhat weaker than it could have been, but a strong showing nevertheless.

Should Win: Argentina, 1985. This is a more original film than the film that will inevitably win the Oscar here and equally as entertaining. I also like EO and The Quiet Girl here, but I feel that Argentina, 1985 is the most complete film of the set.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. The remake of the 1930s adaptation of the World War I novel has been getting all the awards love, and it looks to be one of Netflix’s two best shots at a legitimate Oscar this year.

Best Documentary Feature:

                The nominees for this category are: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny, All That Breathes, and A House Made of Splinters. Yet another stacked category that doesn’t necessarily always end up that way. Would Moonage Daydream have made this an even better set of nominees? Absolutely, but you take what they give you.

Should Win: Navalny. A film about a Russian guy who they tried and failed to assassinate where he calls one of his would-be assassins and gets him to confess over the phone – the documentary goes hard.

Will Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. A documentary about pharmaceuticals and an artist at the same time? It’s got awards darling written all over it. Hard to see this one losing.

Best Animated Feature:

                The nominees for this category are: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, and Turning Red. This is an absolutely stacked category (minus The Sea Beast). Every film has a legitimate reason to win, and I’d be thrilled for most of them.

Should Win: Any film that isn’t The Sea Beast. Pinocchio is one of the best animated films I’ve seen in a while. Marcel the Shell would be a great win for indie animation. Puss in Boots is a phenomenal example of a franchise film choosing to better itself with a sequel and not settle just for a cash grab. And Turning Red is the best animated film that Disney and Pixar have put out since before the pandemic.

Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. The film has been winning everywhere, and even with its snubs in other categories, it’s hard to see the prolific filmmaker going home empty-handed.

Best Visual Effects:

                The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Top Gun: Maverick. This category feels even more straightforward this year than it usually is, and it’s already one of the easier categories to predict.

Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water. James Cameron did it again. It looks great and sometimes even looks too real – phenomenal visuals.

Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water. I’d be surprised to see any of these other films win best visual effects. All Quiet and Black Panther are lurking as possible upsets thanks to strong contention in other categories, but I don’t see that pushing either one over Avatar here.

Best Sound:

                The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. Again, not an overly surprising list of nominees.

Should Win: The Batman. The amount of different effects and their ability to create size and scope in this film just was phenomenal for me. Does it blow out my T.V. speakers when I watch it at home? Sometimes, but that just means it’s good, right? Also, I’m here to shut out the vaguely overrated Top Gun.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick. With its snub in the cinematography category, I imagine they’ll put a lot of their campaigning focus on this category, and all the war sounds work well in their favor. All Quiet and Avatar are also there, but I think this feels pretty locked.

Best Song:

                The nominees in this category are: “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, and “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once. The big surprises of “Applause” and “This Is a Life” over Taylor Swift’s “Carolina” and “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio indicate that we know very little about how this category works and also to never count out Diane Warren.

Should Win: “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Rihanna’s epilogue song to the incredibly moving Black Panther sequel does so much in bringing the film’s final scenes home. For me, it was part of one of the best film moments from this year.

Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR. The sole nomination for the Indian hit feels like a safe bet for the Best Song Oscar, and it also happens to be part of another iconic film scene – the dance off in the film that is one of the most exciting action pieces of the year. I’m fine with this win as long as it’s not “Hold My Hand”.

Best Score:

                The nominees in this category are: Volker Bertelmann for All Quiet on the Western Front, Justin Hurwitz for Babylon, Carter Burwell for The Banshees of Inisherin, Son Lux for Everything Everywhere All at Once, and John Williams for The Fabelmans. John Williams extends his record of most nominated living person in this refreshingly surprising category that includes a surprise nomination for Son Lux.

Should Win: Justin Hurwitz for Babylon. About the only thing people can agree on about the divisive film is its musical excellence. Hurwitz’s score carries the film from start to finish, and it’s one of those that, when you hear it, you immediately know what film it is from.

Will Win: Justin Hurwitz for Babylon. Could they give John Williams a sendoff Oscar? Yeah, but he’s already got a few wins (granted Hurwitz does too). This feels like a two-composer race that Hurwitz will come out victorious in.

Best Production Design:

                The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, and The Fabelmans. In a year without period pieces set before the 1900s, this is a harder category to predict, and Avatar’s nomination might be an interesting film to watch for an upset.

Should Win: The Fabelmans. The production design for this film doesn’t just capture a period of time; it also captures the character of so many of Spielberg’s other films – showcasing the film’s message about the impact of the filmmaker’s childhood on his career. It’s hard to put into words, but I was very impressed with it.

Will Win: Elvis. One thing Baz Luhrmann films consistently have is quality production design, and Elvis is no different. The almost fantastical sets capture the essence of the rockstar’s celebrity in a fashion that looks to be a winning formula for the film.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

                The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and The Whale. Prosthetics galore exist in this category where hairstyling seems to have taken a bit of a backseat this year.

Should Win: The Batman. They made Colin Farrell unrecognizable as the Penguin, made Robert Pattinson look emo, had Zoë Kravitz looking great as Selina Kyle, this team did it all in a great film.

Will Win: The Whale. The team that turned Brendan Fraser into a morbidly obese English teacher looks to be the one that will take the whole thing, and I would be surprised to see anyone else here.

Best Film Editing:

                The nominees in this category are The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick. This category has become indicative of the direction of Best Picture in the past decade, with only a few winners not receiving the nomination for editing as well, and this year looks no different.

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. Maybe I’m just a big dumb idiot who doesn’t understand the complexities of film editing, but all the shots that get cut together with all their fascinating cuts in Everything Everywhere left me feeling very impressed with its editing.

Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick. A film that looks to be this year’s more disappointing version of Mad Max: Fury Road, the Top Gun sequel will probably pull this technical win as well.

Best Costume Design:

                The nominees in this category are: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. Again, this isn’t an overly surprising category and looks to be going the way everyone thinks.

Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Once again innovating and creating costumes for a visually stunning comic book film, Ruth E. Carter created memorable and iconic looks for each character in this film.

Will Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. She won last time for Black Panther, and nothing else looks quite strong enough to provide a legitimate challenge to the iconic looks of this film. Feels pretty dang solid.

Best Cinematography:

                The nominees for this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Empire of Light, Elvis, and Tár. This might be one of the most surprising categories this year with snubs for The Fabelmans and the betting favorite going into the nominations, Top Gun: Maverick. The field is still fairly open with some being safer bets than others.

Should Win: Tár. The unique stylings of Todd Field’s film start with its cinematography and, along with Cate Blanchett’s performance, is one of the main reasons that the film has received all the recognition that it has. I’d be thrilled to see this win.

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. Netflix’s foreign language frontrunner also happens to be a technically excellent film in the eyes of the Academy. In a category with no clear frontrunner at the moment, it’s easy to see how the streamer could pick up another win here.

Best Original Screenplay:

                The nominees in this category are: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, and Triangle of Sadness. There’s no crazy surprises here, and it looks to be a two-film race between the best picture favorites Banshees and Everything Everywhere.

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s funny, dramatic, creative, aggressively original, and risk-taking in a way that all original screenplays should be. Unfortunately, with all the other love that it’s sure to get on the night of the awards, I think it’ll miss out on this one.

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin. The Academy loves them some Martin McDonagh, and his dark comedy about two friends falling out looks to be ready to secure him another Oscar. The expectation that the film won’t win Best Picture or Best Director also lends to this film holding its spot as the favorite.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

                The nominees in this category are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, and Women Talking. The surprise nomination for Top Gun (perhaps a consolation for missing the cinematography nom) doesn’t look to actually shake much up in this category, but still…

Should Win: Living. Kazuo Ishiguro’s adaptation of Ikiru, Akira Kurosawa’s adaptation of The Death of Ivan Ilyich, is one of the more interesting adapted films of the year, especially in a category that includes a remake and two sequels.

Will Win: Women Talking. Sarah Polley missed out on a Best Director nomination but looks to be ready to run away with this win for her adaptation of Miriam Toews’s novel. I won’t be upset, as this seems to be the most original of the adapted screenplays.

Best Supporting Actor:

                The nominees in this category are: Brendan Gleeson for The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway, Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans, Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin, and Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Henry’s nomination came as a surprise, leaving Paul Dano on the outside looking in, but it looks like all of them will be also-rans to this year’s winner.

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Quan’s Waymond Wang is the emotional core of the film, and he delivers one of the most devastatingly hopeful lines of the year in the film’s third act in a scene that I believe solidifies him as this year’s winner.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The comeback story of the year in Hollywood has been Quan’s campaign for all of these awards, winning and accepting them with hope and joy. It’s hard to imagine the Academy going against everyone else on this one.

Best Supporting Actress:

                The nominees in this category are: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Hong Chau for The Whale, Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin, Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Perhaps the most tightly contested category but also the least surprising in terms of nominees, Best Supporting Actress looks to be the most exciting category of the year.

Should Win: Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The daughter and villain(?) of the Daniels’ multiverse film does work in both roles that she is asked to play in the film, bringing all of her cynicism, heart, and love to bear in the performance.

Will Win: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. For starters, this Oscar will be long overdue. For another, Bassett’s performance is my second-favorite of the nominees, and she doesn’t have a co-star to split votes with, so she feels like the right and safe choice here (though don’t be surprised if it’s literally any of the others).

Best Actor:

                The nominees in this category are: Austin Butler for Elvis, Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser for The Whale, Paul Mescal for Aftersun, and Bill Nighy for Living. Paul Mescal getting in over Tom Cruise and Diego Calva wasn’t as much a surprise as a relief, but he’s not really that important to what truly is a three-actor race. After the SAGs, we should have a clearer idea of who the frontrunner really is.

Should Win: Brendan Fraser for The Whale. Fraser’s performance carries the film and has brought him back to prominence in the industry. His increasing versatility makes him a solid choice here.

Will Win: Austin Butler for Elvis. Butler follows in a classic tradition of actors nominated for portraying musical icons. In this case, his performance as “the King” makes him a fairly safe bet, especially in light of the tragedy of Lisa Marie Presley’s death.

Best Actress:

                The nominees in this category are: Cate Blanchett for Tár, Ana de Armas for Blonde, Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie, Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans, and Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Alright, this is the wildest category for snubs and surprises. How did both Danielle Deadwyler get left out for Till and Viola Davis for The Woman King in favor of Andrea Riseborough and Ana de Armas? It blows my mind, but it's not like any of those four women had much of a chance of actually winning the award anyway.

Should Win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Full disclosure, I haven’t actually watched Tár yet, so I don’t know for sure that this performance is better than Blanchett’s, but she’s already got two, and Michelle Yeoh is phenomenal in Everything Everywhere, so why not?

Will Win: Cate Blanchett for Tár. Blanchett is a powerhouse actress, and her performance in this film sounds like it is more of the same that should add her (deservedly so) to the ranks of actors with three acting Oscars. Don’t totally count out either Michelle, though Williams looks more and more like a longshot every day.

Best Director:

                The nominees in this category are: the Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once, Todd Field for Tár, Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin, Ruben Östlund for Triangle of Sadness, and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. Though decried for the category’s exclusion (yet again) of female directors, the only one who I can legitimately see replacing here is Östlund in favor of Sarah Polley or Gina Prince-Bythewood, none of whom actually have a shot of beating either of the frontrunners.

Should Win: The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The directing duo of Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert created and directed a film that truly took the world by storm and has revamped the world of indie filmmaking and its legitimacy as both entertainment (keyword here) and art.

Will Win: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. Has his campaign lost some steam since his win at the Globes and his missing out on the BAFTA longlist? Absolutely, but I still don’t see the Academy going away from giving him credit for this autobiographical film. I could be surprised, but I’m not there yet.

Best Picture:

                The nominees for the top prize at the Oscars are: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. This is one of the most satisfying slates of Best Picture nominees in a while and should leave the Oscars with a legitimately good film as its top winner no matter what.

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s my favorite film of the year, and it looks like a lot of other people agree with me. Originality and innovation should be celebrated more and more.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. The only other challengers to it are Banshees and The Fabelmans, neither of which seems to have as much support going into this voting season. The film’s originality, leading of the nominations, and positive campaigning have it looking more and more like a runaway winner every day.